(Via Action Network): Sportsbooks posted odds for NBA Finals Game 3 shortly after Game 2 ended, which was a bit surprising given three key players — Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Kevon Looney — are all uncertain for Wednesday’s affair.
The spread opened at Warriors -5.5 and has since been bet up to -6 or even -6.5 at a few books. The question is, though: When should bettors invest? Is it worth taking a shot on the Warriors now? Or will it move back down if Durant ultimately can’t go?
Two of our NBA experts, Matt Moore and Justin Phan, went back and forth over Slack today to hash out all of those questions….
Does the Spread Suggest Kevin Durant Is Playing?
Matt Moore: OK, so I feel like this line estimates KD will play in Game 3. The Warriors closed at +2 in Game 1 when it was expected they would win and +2 again in Game 2. Do we think a 6.5-point swing off the Warriors win and with a move to Oracle doesn’t include Durant playing?
I still don’t think you should get in now, considering how big of a swing KD is. Without him, I think this line is way too high. With him, I think it’s right on point. Do bettors need to try and get ahead of the news?
Justin Phan: Yeah, the Warriors have moved from -5.5 to -6 since open and are receiving a higher money percentage than bets percentage at the moment, so your KD theory seems to make sense. Except there hasn’t been any real indication that a Game 3 return is anywhere close to a certainty.
He still hadn’t been cleared for contact as of Sunday, and coach Steve Kerr only said it was “feasible” that he could play Wednesday if he’s able to practice on Tuesday. As of now, a Game 4 return appears more likely especially given the Warriors were able to steal a game in Toronto.
If you’re backing Toronto, I’d take +6.5 right now if it’s available, but with the line at +6 at most books, I could see the argument to wait. If KD ends up being ruled out, this line probably settles back to Warriors -5.5. If KD ends up playing, it likely ends up around -7.
So if you do the math and give KD a 20% chance to play on Wednesday (which I think is reasonable), the expected line comes in at -5.8. So you’re not losing out on that much by waiting, especially if you think there’s a decent chance he’ll be back in time.
One thing I wanted to get into: How big of an impact do you think KD will have on the Warriors in his first game back? If he’s back for Game 3, he’ll have had only one practice and no game action under his belt in exactly four weeks time. How many points to the spread is he really worth from the outset?
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